2018: Lessons from The Year Gone By

Friday, December 28 2018
Source/Contribution by : NJ Publications

If one has to describe the year 2018 for financial markets in one word, it would be 'volatile'. As we have known, markets tend to be volatile in short periods of time and 2018 was not surprise. The year saw both the Indian and the global markets having bouts of volatility. As we come close to this year, perhaps we can draw a few lessons and refresh ourselves of what will soon be history – year 2018.

The year's market fluctuations had multiple reasons. Market volatility also saw it's impact on the investor's returns. The reasons include, weak global markets, US and China trade war, slowing earnings growth, increase and decrease in oil prices , state elections, ongoing tiffs between RBI and the Central Government and so on. The year saw the Sensex at an all time high of 38,989 (29th August) and at a year low of 32,483 (23rd March), moving in a range of over 20% during the year. As the year comes to a close, the markets are around 36,100 levels compared to the year's start of at 33813. With all the volatility, the year is still closing on a positive note with an increase of over 6.5%. The graph below will shows how the BSE Sensex has moved this year.

There one thing which has been keenly observed this year and its' about investor behaviour. The intermittent market swings did not dissuade the investors and instead they seemed to have become more mature. There have been incidents when the market didn't over react to a certain news and also bounced back quickly after some knee jerk reactions. One such instance was observed recently on 12th December when news of BJP loosing all three states and the RBI governor resigning came. When everyone would have thought the markets will tank, the opposite happened and the markets closed much higher for the two action filled days. This showed that nothing is truly predictable in the markets in short term.

The volatility and jolts did affect portfolios and returns.

When one takes a narrow look at the returns for 2018 alone, a lot of portfolios may have underperformed compared to expectations. This is not new in equity markets and hence it is important to understand that in the long term, the effect of volatility is smoothened out as we can see from the broader indices. As investors, we are sure that for our readers, the focus continues to be on the long term investment. Markets will always be volatile, sometimes more and sometimes less, especially in the short term.

Thankfully, the year did see more maturity from investors. Instead of investors shying away from investing in the market, investors continued to prefer the SIP route to investing which actually works best in markets with high volatility. The mutual fund SIP investments in November 2018 rose by 35% to Rs 7,985 crore, from Rs 5,893 crore in November 2017.

Similarly SIP investments from April to November 2018 rose by 48% to Rs 60,457 crore, from Rs 40,780 crore during April to November 2017.

Apart from retail investors, both the foreign and domestic institutional investors have also remained positive about the Indian economy, irrespective of the fluctuations in the stock market.

During the times when the market price of your investments is falling, one should remember the rule of the ace investor Warren Buffett. The rule is, when the market prices of your investments are falling, you should increase your investment more as you can now by the same investment at cheaper rates. The same rule can also be observed in the average price rule. The average rule basically helps you take advantage of the volatility.

Obviously this is considering that you are investing in the right asset class for the right time horizon, keeping your risk profile or portfolio asset allocation in mind.

To end, let us again remind ourselves that the equity markets are bound to be volatile in short periods of time like say one year. Evaluating anything and making judgement over short term is really not in the best interests of anyone. If the markets where volatile, that is how they usually are in short term and are again likely to be volatile for year 2019 as well. As investors, we should just learn from the markets and keep our conviction in long term growth story of India.

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How procrastination is affecting your returns

Friday, December 14 2018
Source/Contribution by : NJ Publications

Procrastination is something almost every one of us is guilty of. We tend to put off things till later, make excuses for not doing something we should have prioritised, waste time on social media on doing things which are unimportant. While a little procrastination does not hurt, procrastination with important things can be very risky. We have all suffered because of procrastination, missed deadlines, had to stay up all night finishing up something which should have been done a long time ago, working on the weekends etc.

While the reasons why we procrastinate are deep-rooted in our psychology, we generally tend to procrastinate more with stuff which seems daunting and requires effort and decision making.

One such area is investing.

Most people understand the importance of investment and know that without investment they are taking some huge risks regarding their future, however, they still tend to delay their investment decisions. People think they have enough time and it won't make a huge impact if they start investing later. What one needs to understand is that, they are forgetting the “magic of compounding” and are foregoing their returns by not starting earlier.

The “magic of compounding” is the simple function of money, which explains that not only do you work for money, but your money also works for you.

While one may argue that he or she will invest a higher amount during the later years when they can save more and thus invest more, the growth in corpus will still be different because of compounding. Let us look at the case of Amit and Rohan.

Both Amit and Rohan are of 25 years of age and want to retire at 60. While Amit starts preparing for his retirement by starting at 25 with an amount of Rs 5000 per month, Rohan starts at 35 with Rs 10,000 per month. Both of them invest in funds which deliver a 12% CAGR over long term.

At 60, Amit's portfolio is worth Rs 3.25 crore and Rohan's portfolio is worth Rs 1.90 crore. Even though in a total of 35 years of his investment, Amit invested a total of Rs 21 lakhs and Rohan in total of 25 years invested Rs 30 lakhs, Amit's return is higher because he started earlier and his investment was compounded for 10 more years than Rohan's.

The power of compounding is clear with the above example and it shows that even if we convince ourselves that we will be able to cover up for the time lost by investing more, growth in your corpus will still be lower if you start late.

It is important to remember that difference in corpus amounts will be even higher if one makes high investments since the beginning or invests in portfolio with higher returns.

While we have assumed the return in Amit's and Rohan's case was at 12%, the difference in amounts would have been even higher at a higher return, say 15%. If Amit and Rohan invest at 15%, while Amit's corpus would have grown to Rs 7.43 crore, Rohan's investment would have grown to only Rs 3.28 crore.

One can come up with multiple reasons to not start investing immediately, like you don't save enough or you don't know how to begin with it or you need the money for emergencies, etc etc. One just needs to go to the simple motto we've been taught since childhood, where there is a will there is a way.

Just like at the beginning with everything else, the first step is the hardest and everything works up naturally after that. Even with investing, setting your goal and deciding where to investment might seem daunting at first, but once you take the step and set up a SIP, it all aligns up automatically and there is not much you have to do after that.

Also, if you are thinking, I am already too late, just remember, you are never too late and it's better late than never. You can always figure out a way, especially with the help of a good advisor, who can guide you through with your investments.

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What will Your Retirement be like?

Friday, November 23 2018
Source/Contribution by : NJ Publications

Life is like a convolution of waters, the creeks merge into a river, the rivers split into tributaries, but the ultimate destination for all is one, eventually they all merge into the sea. Similarly, all the roads in life ultimately converge towards Retirement.

Retirement is the grand finale of every competition. And almost everyone has some retirement fantasies at the back of their minds. We all have given a thought at some point of time about how our retirement life is going to be. Whether you ask a 50 year old or a 30 year old, both of them will have their retirement fantasies in mind. The 50 year old may have a more realistic response to the question, since his retirement is almost a decade away, he can predict the total resources he will have considering the investments he has made for his Retirement, he can see his goals that are coming in between, and he knows how much he can stretch to contribute to the corpus. The 30 year old's retirement dream may be much more extravagant. He may want to live in a beach villa in Goa, he may want to ride a BMW, he may want to go for foreign trips, he wants spend the last years of his life in utmost luxury.

And you know, the 30 year old can do all of this after his retirement. Because he has 30 most productive years of his life in hand. He has all the time in the world, to work his socks off, save and invest more and more, and live all his whims.

So, the sooner you have the answer to the question, greater are the chances that you will live an affluent post retirement life, you will be able to provide to yourself a better quality of life, just by thinking and acting in time.

If you can visualize and plan for your post retirement life at an early age, you are better of because:

  • You have the time & power to take decisions and mould your life the way you want to.
  • You have the time to prioritize your goals. You can carve out from your other goals to contribute the maximum to your Retirement goal.
  • You have the capacity to work more, earn more, and save and invest more. They say, it's easy to shoot the target, when you have the target. When you can see the mirage of your dream retirement, you will run as fast as you can, to bridge the longest laps.
  • Your investments will get the maximum time to illustrate their true potential. If invested in the right asset class, the compounding effect can multiply your principal manifold.

Write the Sketch
Take out your diary, and write all what you want to do in your golden years. Write down every figment of your imagination, no matter how flamboyant or unreal it seems. Whether you want to go for a world tour with your spouse, or you want to go back to where you came from, and settle down with your school friends in your hometown. Whether you want to reside around the serene beaches of the Andamans or you want to pursue your passion of nurturing plants and send fresh organic fruits for your grandkids from the backyard of your house. Whatever whims you have, ink them, you have the ability & most importantly time to personify a lot of those whims that may seem unreal today.

Fill the Colours
Once you have your retirement sketch ready, it's time to get into action. Quantify your wishes in monetary terms, the money you would need to go for the world tour, or to buy a beach villa in the Andamans, the money you would need to survive, to meet your everyday expenses, and to maintain your lifestyle. Let's say, today the cost of doing a 2 year long world tour is Rs 1 Crore for a couple, assuming you will retire after 30 years and assuming an average rate of inflation of 5%, the cost of this world tour will be Rs 4.32 Crore, when you retire. To live your dream, you need to start an SIP of just Rs 14,000 a month in an Equity Mutual Fund, assuming a moderate rate of return of 12%, you will have Rs 4.32 Crore for the World Tour when you retire. The point is, you can actualize your fantasy, something which looks unrealistic today, by investing just Rs 14,000 a month.

You can accomplish all your dreams, it's just that you need to think ahead and plan to live your big dreams. Share the agenda of your dreams with your financial advisor and he will guide you through your journey towards those dreams, he will prepare a step by step plan for you to work towards, save and invest for each of your dreams.

To conclude, dream big, stay focused and believe in yourself, you have the power to win the whole world.

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Evaluating Investments Performance

Friday, September 21 2018
Source/Contribution by : NJ Publications

Returns Evaluation activity is done by investors quite often. We want to be aware of the clear position of our investments, what is our portfolio return, which investments are faring better than others, etc. There are various measures of return like Absolute Return, CAGR, Annualized Return, IRR, XIRR, etc. used to compute the performance of investment products. In this passage we will concentrate on the applicability of IRR and XIRR methods.

Performance stats of Mutual Fund schemes are generally expressed in terms of CAGR, i.e. compounded annual growth rate or Absolute Return if the period of investment is less than a year. Absolute Return is simply the difference between the beginning and the ending value of your investment, expressed in percentage terms. For Eg. You invested in a Mutual Fund Scheme on 1 Jan 2017, when the NAV was Rs 10, on 1st July 2017 it is Rs 12, so the absolute return is 20%. Here, the holding period is not taken into consideration. CAGR will give you the compounded annualized return number on your investment, so continuing the above example, if on 1st July 2019, the NAV grows to 20, then the CAGR is 41.42% from 01 Jan 2017.

However, these formulas have their limitations, they can be used in measuring point to point returns only. If there is a stream of inflows or outflows, like dividends from shares, or SIP investments, etc., then IRR and XIRR formulas should be used to get annualized return.

What is IRR?

IRR or Internal Rate of Return is a method for calculating returns from an investment, where the number of inflows or outflows are multiple. For Example, if you want to calculate the returns from your SIP investment of Rs 5,000 a month which you did for 3 years, it will be cumbersome to calculate the CAGR for each SIP installment, the first installment for 36 months, then 35 months, and so on until 1 month. IRR is a simple formula in excel which you can use to find out the cumulative return on your investment. Or, if you want to compare your SIP investment with any other periodic investment of yours like if you have also been investing in a Recurring Deposit over the same period, you can use the IRR formula to compare the returns from your investments. Your advisor can help you in applying the formula and analyze various returns. If you are an investor with NJ, you don't have to worry about using IRR either for your SIP investment, you can get the IRR number anytime on your investment from your Client Desk.

However, the IRR method can be used only when the inflows or outflows are regular, for irregular cashflows, there is an extension to the IRR formula, called the Extended Internal Rate of Return or XIRR. XIRR can be used in both scenarios, i.e. when the cash flows are regular or whether they are irregular. Now for instance, over these three years you have also invested in gold, lets say you bought Rs 20,000 worth of gold twice and Rs 30,000 worth of gold thrice, and all these investments were done at different time intervals. If you want to evaluate the overall return from your gold investment, then you can use the XIRR formula in excel to arrive at the same. You can also compare the performance of your SIP investment with the gold investment over the same time period, with the XIRR formula.

XIRR for analyzing Portfolio Returns. Investors generally invest in a number of investment products belonging to different asset classes over different time periods. If an investor has a portfolio of Mutual Funds, Bonds, Real Estate, Gold and PPF, and this investor wants to have a holistic picture of the Portfolio performance, so he must analyze his total Portfolio Return. The investor has to enter the purchase prices, the dates of purchase and the present value of all these investments in excel, with the help of the XIRR formula, the investor will have his Portfolio returns number. You can also compare the different investments in the Portfolio with the XIRR formula.

There are various return measures used to depict the performance of different investment products by the investment product providers. But for analyzing and comparing returns on a personal level, the IRR and XIRR formulas come in handy. You can seek help from your financial advisor for using these formulas and evaluating your investments individually, make comparisons or for getting a comprehensive view of your Portfolio.

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Things to keep in mind while setting Financial Goals

Friday, September 14 2018
Source/Contribution by : NJ Publications

The first step in financial planning is setting your goals. In fact, the goals serve as the base to any financial plan. Hence one must be extremely careful in setting his/her goals, because it's only when the foundation is strong, the building stands undaunted to the test of time. Hence you must have definite goals which are free from errors.

The subsequent paragraphs will throw light on how you should go about setting your goals, the points you should keep in mind in order to avoid mistakes.

Difference between a Goal and a Financial Goal: The first thing that you must know before goal setting is, understanding the difference between a goal and a financial goal. A goal when quantified in terms of value as well as number of years, becomes a financial goal. Say for instance, you want your daughter to do her masters from Harvards. This is your goal. But when you say, 15 years from now, you need Rs 1 Crore to let your daughter do her masters from Harvards, this is your financial goal. Here, you must be careful in estimating the future cost of the goal, since you need to take into account an appropriate inflation rate. It is advisable that you seek help from a financial advisor for the goal setting process, so that you don't under or over invest for the goal.

Your goals are interdependent: Your goals are separate but not solitary, each goal exercises some impact on another. And putting all your goals together on one excel sheet or a diary, will give you a broad view and will help you prioritize. You may not start investing for all the goals with immediate effect, but at least you have all of them on your to-do list, so that you can take them up gradually. For instance, your near term goal of paying off your credit card outstanding may push your vacation goal from next year to a year ahead. So, after your credit card debt, you can start saving for the vacation.

Not just other goals, your goals are also dependent upon various financial and personal factors like income, expenses, savings, budget, assets, liabilities, number of dependents, etc. For instance, if currently your income is low due to a market slump, and expenses are high as usual, your goal for buying an expensive sedan in two years time may not be realistic. So, either you have to modify the goal to a mediocre hatchback or maybe push the goal horizon from 2 to 5 years. So, your other goals and your personal and financial factors put together will determine your goal realization and will also help you set the horizon.

Goal Horizon and Investment: The horizon of your goal largely determines the investments you choose. There are other factors playing a role too, like your age, income, risk appetite, risk tolerance, etc., but the inverse relation between horizon and risk associated with the investment plays as the thumb rule. For near term goals, it is not apt to invest in risky products, as it may hamper your goal achievement. For long term goals, you can venture into riskier options, with a greater return potential, since you have the leverage of time in hand.

Link your Goals: Once you have set your goals, link your investments to these goals. Goal linking is crucial because it gives you a clear picture of the needs and the gaps, and the investment product you should choose keeping in mind the amount required and the horizon of the goal. Each of your goals must be linked to a fitting investment, your financial advisor will help you in selecting the right product for each goal, which is capable of producing the required amount when the goal arrives.

Review: Like life, relationships, job, health, and a lot of other things, goals are also not static. A lot of factors can result in a change in your goal, your incomes or expense commitments, your preferences may change over time, some goals may no longer remain applicable beyond a point, and some new goals may take over, etc. Also, your long term term goals will eventually become short term goals and you must take the necessary steps to provide for the transition. For Example, your retirement goal which was 15 years away 12 years earlier, is only 3 years hence, so you need to shift your investments into less riskier options to avoid the impact of short term volatility. So, the bottomline is, goals are dynamic and investments must be restructured & realigned to the goals from time to time.

So, the above were few key points which the investors must be mindful of while setting their financial goals.

To conclude, define your goals prudently, and let your goals keep you going!

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Imp.Note: We are registered NJ Wealth Partners and this interview published is sourced from NJ Wealth with due permissions. Reproduction of this interview/article/content in any form or medium by any means without prior written permissions of NJ India Invest Pvt. Ltd. is strictly prohibited.

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